The World Bank reports a third annual rise in gas flaring. IEA recovery estimates and recent US production data point to a practical question: where can captured gas actually go?
Observed fact: more gas was burned in 2025
The World Bank's 2026 Global Gas Flaring Tracker reports that global gas flaring reached 167 billion cubic metres in 2025, its third consecutive annual increase and the highest level since 2019. Flaring is the burning of gas produced alongside oil when it is not captured for productive use. The World Bank estimates the wasted gas's value at US$54 billion. That is an indicative resource valuation, not cash that a producer could immediately collect: capture facilities, processing, transport and a paying end market would still be needed. [1]
The global direction conceals different national results. The World Bank says the United States recorded the largest absolute reduction in 2025, lowering flaring by 0.4 billion cubic metres, or 7%. It links much of that change to the commissioning of the Matterhorn Express pipeline in the Permian Basin. Kazakhstan's flaring was 87% below its 2012 level after sustained policy and infrastructure action. These are reported examples of progress, not proof that one pipeline or one policy would reproduce the same result in every basin. [1]
Observed fact: production and useful supply are different measures
US Energy Information Administration data released on 2 October show gross natural-gas withdrawals reaching 137 billion cubic feet per day in July 2026, a monthly record. The agency attributes the increase primarily to new wells in Texas and New Mexico and reports that new pipeline infrastructure is easing long-standing Permian transport bottlenecks. This is a US production observation several months after the World Bank's global 2025 flaring estimate. It cannot establish a new global flaring trend for 2026. [3]
The EIA distinguishes gross withdrawals from marketed gas and dry gas. Gross withdrawals measure gas at the wellhead; marketed production removes gas used for repressuring, vented and flared gas, and nonhydrocarbon gases; dry production is consumer-grade gas after further exclusions. EIA says all three US measures set July records, but their definitions still matter. A high gross figure alone cannot show how much gas can be sold, transported or delivered to an end user. The difference is central when interpreting a flaring headline as a potential supply opportunity. [3]
Observed estimates: recovery potential is conditional
The International Energy Agency's Global Methane Tracker 2026 estimates that cutting methane emissions from oil and gas operations could make nearly 100 billion cubic metres of natural gas available annually. It estimates a further 100 billion cubic metres could be unlocked by eliminating non-emergency flaring worldwide. These are modelled global potentials under extensive action, not measured output, committed projects or additions that can be placed into today's supply balance. The IEA explicitly says equipment and infrastructure deployment would take time. [2]
The IEA's narrower near-term estimate is nearly 15 billion cubic metres if countries with spare export capacity and gas importers apply abatement measures across their operations. Its estimate still depends on location, existing export capacity and execution. The World Bank separately puts the upfront investment needed to eliminate routine flaring globally at US$70–100 billion. These figures describe different scopes and methods; adding the IEA potentials to the World Bank's measured 2025 flaring volume would mix a scenario with an observed waste estimate. [1][2]
Oakhampton inference: test the complete delivery route
Oakhampton's inference is that a gas-capture opportunity should be screened as a connected delivery chain, starting with the field rather than with a headline volume. The questions are whether associated-gas volumes and quality are measured, whether collection and processing equipment is available, where a pipeline or local user can take the gas, and whether the destination has dependable demand. A commercial model would then need capital cost, operating cost, permissions, timing and a verified buyer or use case. This is a screening framework drawn from the source evidence, not a claim that any particular field is viable. [1][2][3]
The US example gives this inference practical weight: the World Bank associates the 2025 flaring reduction with a commissioned takeaway pipeline, while the EIA says newer pipelines are easing Permian bottlenecks as production grows. That combination suggests that gathering and transport constraints can determine whether associated gas is wasted or marketed. It does not isolate the pipeline's effect from every other operational or regulatory change. For a different basin, an on-site power user, local processing or another route might be more relevant than an export pipeline; the sources do not rank those options project by project. [1][3]
Remaining uncertainty and the next evidence test
The World Bank's 2026 tracker uses an enhanced satellite method with three NOAA satellites and an improved flare-location catalogue. Better detection can change the measured series as well as reveal real operational changes. The IEA's methane estimates combine measurements, satellite observations and inference, and it says data quality varies considerably between countries. Neither source supplies a bankable volume, netback price or delivery schedule for a specific gas-capture project. [1][2]
A credible next test is therefore a field-level reconciliation: measured gas produced, gas flared or vented, volumes recovered, plant capacity, pipeline nominations and volumes delivered should agree over the same period. The EIA's definitions show why the stages must be kept distinct. The cited global and national data support closer investigation of gas waste and infrastructure, but they cannot establish that any unbuilt project will earn a return, relieve a particular market shortage or reduce flaring by a promised amount. Those conclusions require site-specific engineering, contracts and measured operations. [2][3]
Sources
- 2026 Global Gas Flaring Tracker ReportWorld Bank, Global Flaring and Methane Reduction Partnership
- Global Methane Tracker 2026: Key findingsInternational Energy Agency · 4 May 2026
- U.S. natural gas production reached a record high in July 2026U.S. Energy Information Administration · 2 October 2026